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Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 122

Nairavoice · Oct 9, 2026 · 4 min read

Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 122 appeared first on ClutchPoints. Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

UFC Vegas 122: Allen vs. Duncan continues on the prelims with a fight between Felipe Franco and Brendson Ribeiro in the light heavyweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 122 odds series for our Franco-Ribeiro prediction and pick.

Felipe Franco (11-2, 1-1 UFC) rebounded from a unanimous-decision loss to Mario Pinto in March by stopping Levi Rodrigues Jr. with second-round punches in July. Moving from heavyweight to light heavyweight delivered his first UFC victory, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Brendson Ribeiro seeking another finish.

Brendson Ribeiro (17-11, 2-6 UFC) has lost four straight, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Magomed Tuchalov in July. Previously, Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev submitted him with a first-round rear-naked choke in April, leaving him seeking a desperately needed rebound as he comes into his fight this weekend against Felipe Franco.

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UFC Vegas 122 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings:

UFC Vegas 122 Odds: Felipe Franco-Brendson Ribeiro Odds

Felipe Franco: -395

Brendson Ribeiro: +310

Over 1.5 Rounds: +135

Under 1.5 Rounds: -175

Why Felipe Franco Will Win

Felipe Franco should beat Brendson Ribeiro because his combination of explosive offense and wrestling creates a matchup for the veteran. Rather than relying exclusively on a knockout, Franco can threaten punches before changing levels and forcing Ribeiro to defend takedowns.

That layered attack is the clearest difference between these fighters, particularly when Ribeiro commits to his own offensive striking combinations. Franco should use those exchanges to close distance, establish control and prevent Ribeiro from finding a comfortable rhythm at range.

Ribeiro enters on a four-fight losing streak, while Franco has momentum after winning his most recent appearance at light heavyweight. Those results do not guarantee another defeat, but they strengthen the case for Franco imposing his strengths instead of trading recklessly.

Franco’s grappling background also makes Ribeiro’s submission threats less intimidating, although he still needs to protect his neck during takedown entries. Once on top, Franco can prioritize positional control and ground strikes, making Ribeiro defend repeatedly rather than launch sustained offense.

The biggest danger is allowing Ribeiro to land cleanly before Franco establishes pressure, so disciplined entries will matter from the opening bell. I expect Franco’s wrestling to create the decisive advantage, setting up damaging ground strikes and a stoppage victory.

Why Brendson Ribeiro Will Win

Brendson Ribeiro’s strongest case for beating Felipe Franco starts with his reach, which gives him an opportunity to control striking distance. Ribeiro owns an eighty-one-inch reach compared with Franco’s seventy-six inches, making straight punches an important weapon against the advancing favorite.

That advantage matters only if Ribeiro uses disciplined footwork rather than backing toward the fence and allowing Franco to close distance. By keeping exchanges long and brief, he can make Franco reset repeatedly instead of settling into a pressure game built around takedowns.

Ribeiro also has considerably more professional experience, entering at seventeen wins and eleven losses compared with Franco’s eleven wins and two defeats. That experience offers a potential advantage when exchanges become chaotic, although his four consecutive losses make this an uphill assignment.

Franco’s wrestling is the obvious danger, so Ribeiro must prioritize balance and positioning before chasing spectacular offense or extended punching combinations. His best upset opportunity could arrive when Franco closes distance, creating a window for a counter before the fight reaches the ground.

Ribeiro does not need to dominate every minute if he can make his length produce the fight’s most consequential offensive moment. I would frame the upset as a knockout victory, with Ribeiro catching Franco entering range rather than winning through sustained control.

Final Felipe Franco-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Pick

Felipe Franco is my pick to beat Brendson Ribeiro because his wrestling offers a clearer route to controlling this matchup. Franco’s takedown threat should prevent Ribeiro from freely exploiting his five-inch reach advantage during exchanges.

Ribeiro remains dangerous at distance, where straight punches could punish Franco for rushing forward without preparation. Franco must close space behind strikes, forcing defensive reactions before changing levels rather than attempting takedowns from too far away.

The grappling numbers favor Franco, while Ribeiro’s reported takedown defense suggests opportunities to establish top position. Once there, Franco should prioritize control and measured ground strikes instead of sacrificing position chasing an immediate finish.

Ribeiro’s experience could help him survive difficult stretches, but his recent losing streak makes sustained confidence another concern. Franco enters with momentum following his latest victory, giving him reason to trust his approach.

Expect Franco to pressure, secure takedowns and accumulate damage and get the second-round TKO.

Final Felipe Franco-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Pick: Felipe Franco (-395), UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-175)

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