Fantasy Football: Yes, it's time for Hayden Winks' kicker deep dive for 2026

Nothing makes me feel worse about myself than spending a beautiful summer day building models for fantasy football points at kicker. If it was up to me, this position wouldn’t exist in our made-up game, but if you guys have them in your leagues, then it’s my job to provide #taeks.

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Today’s research was based on the last three years of kicker data. I first looked at how many fantasy points each kicker averaged if they played at least 10 games for one team, then I looked at if field goals or extra points are more important and which team-based stats are most impacting kicker scores.

I learned a lot by doing this, enough to say my 2026 kicker rankings are quite #based. The results:

How Valuable Are Kickers?

The K1 on the year has scored 11.0 fantasy points per game on average. The K2 was at 10.3 and the replacement-level kicker in 12-team leagues averaged 8.2. That means the top kickers each year are separating from the worst starter by about 2.5 to 3.0 points per game. 

For reference, the QB3 (Drake Maye) scored 3.0 more fantasy points per game than the QB12 (Bo Nix), and we draft the QB3 in the fifth round in just about every draft. At tight end last year, the TE4 (Brock Bowers) averaged 3.1 more fantasy points per game than the TE12, and we draft the TE4 in the fifth round in just about every draft as well. That 3.0-point difference was D’Andre Swift (RB16) to Tony Pollard (RB30) at running back and Zay Flowers (WR14) to Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR36) at wide receiver. 

There is a fantasy points over replacement argument that the top-notch kickers are worth real picks. That is, if we can properly predict them before the season kicks off. 

Are Field Goals or Extra Points More Valuable?

Breaking news: field goals are simply more valuable because they score more fantasy points. Wow. Thank you. For the math nerds, field goals made have a correlation of 0.80 to fantasy points, while extra points made are at 0.32. It’s really not even close, but this means we aren’t simply sorting by projected team points when discussing fantasy kickers. 

What Teams Create Kicker Points?

There are two primary things to evaluate: team success and team philosophy. Offensive success is by far more important, but both need to be accounted for. 

How many touchdowns an offense scores has a 0.43 correlation to kicker fantasy points per game. This is nearly identical to team first downs (0.41 correlation), so any valuable offensive stat will be quite helpful. In the offseason, we can look at projected points per game as a starting point.

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Team philosophy has a more minor correlation, at least when I looked into optimal 4th-down go-for-it rate on RBSDM.com. That metric had a -0.13 correlation to kicker fantasy points, which is by far the lowest correlation I studied. Still, it’s not 0.0 correlation and it matches up with what I theorized; NFL offenses that go for it at higher rates create fewer field goal attempts, which then lowers kicker fantasy points. There’s some level of correlation between how good a team’s defense is with this team philosophy from eye balling the data. The Texans, who have an elite defense, have been very conservative with their 4th-down decision-making, leading to more field goal attempts.

Does a Kicker Have to be Good?

The field goal made percentage has a correlation of 0.44 to fantasy points per game. That’s enough to matter, but it’s not the primary thing we are looking for. The team-based traits are the thing most driving the bus. 

On the margins, a kicker that is money in the bank will get more field goal attempts as the 4th-down decisions could lean more towards field goal attempts if the coach has confidence in him making it. This also proves true with field goal range, as there are some field goal or punt decisions that pop up throughout the season. This is the Brandon Aubrey and Cam Little factor.

2026 Kicker Rankings

The first tier of kickers are the targets, even if that means we’re drafting them near Round 10. This was shocking to see, but there’s a fairly predictable difference between Ka’imi Fairbairn, Aubrey, Cameron Dicker and Jason Myers versus the rest of the pack. Fairbairn is a good kicker with the most conservative coach in 4th-down decisions, and the Texans should be a slightly better offense this season. Aubrey is the best kicker in the game, and the Cowboys are a projected top-six offense with a centrist philosophy in 4th-down decisions. Dicker is my biggest riser in value with the Chargers expected to vault up in points scored, and Jim Harbaugh was the most conservative 4th-down decision-maker last season. Myers was second in scoring last year with a conservative, defense-minded head coach, though the Seahawks are expected to regress on offense this year. 

Little and Tyler Loop are solid plays without the elite upside of the tier above. Loop might have more upside, but he’s a shakier projection in general.

Will Reichard is another target versus consensus rankings with the Vikings expected to rebound on offense. Last year, the Vikings were fairly conservative in 4th-down decisions with their defense holding down the fort.

Cairo Santos (Bears), Evan McPherson (Bengals) and Eddy Pineiro (49ers) are all kicking on high-scoring offenses but aren’t as dynamic as individual talents.