Fantasy Football: Gauging the panic meter on Chargers, Marvin Harrison Jr. and more heading into Week 2

Week 1. This happens every year: we spend all summer talking about roles, situations and offenses. We draft players based on what we think these teams are going to look like, then we get one game of actual football, and lose our minds.

Everything we believed is either validated or feels like it just went up in flames.

Here’s the thing: some of what we saw matters. Some of it is Week 1 variance. Some of it is just noise. The job is figuring out which is which before you make a bad decision just because you are reacting to one Sunday. That’s what I’m here to help with.

The Panic Meter is simple: No Panic, Some Panic, Total Panic or Coping Corner. Which performances am I willing to be patient with? Which ones actually changed how I feel about these players and offenses?

Here’s where I stand after the first full Sunday of the season.

Los Angeles Chargers: Some Panic

This was one of the most disappointing performances of Week 1. The Chargers were favored by nearly double digits at home against an Arizona team a lot of people expected to be one of the worst in football. Instead, the Cardinals walked into SoFi Stadium and put belt to you-know-what. Arizona won 26-14, outgained Los Angeles 393-268 and held the football for more than 37 minutes. Justin Herbert finished with 209 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception. He wasn’t terrible, but this wasn’t the type of performance we expect from Herbert either. Arizona controlled the game and the Chargers offense never really found its footing.

Ladd McConkey was the exception. McConkey caught five of seven targets for 82 yards and a touchdown before leaving with a rib injury. His 6.75 Trinity Score, my usage model, was above league average. Nobody else in this passing game reached that level. Tre’ Harris and Quentin Johnston simply didn’t see enough meaningful usage to give us much confidence coming out of Week 1.

That’s concerning, because McConkey might be the piece that makes this entire thing work. Scott Pianowski described him as the Jenga piece of this offense on the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast and I think that’s exactly right. The offense was functional when he was involved, then everything seemed to fall apart. Now he’s dealing with the rib injury.

Omarion Hampton scored a touchdown, but I’m not giving him a complete pass either. He finished with 43 yards on 12 carries, but I just wanted to see more. More juice, more wiggle and more of the stuff you expect from a former first-round running back. I’m not making some dramatic Hampton downgrade after one game, but I thought he needed to play better.

The offensive line still looks problematic and Herbert needs to be sharper, especially because the schedule isn’t giving Los Angeles a soft landing with the Raiders, Bills and Seahawks coming up. I’m not sounding every alarm after one game, but this offense needs to show us more quickly. I’ve got Some Panic with the Chargers.

New England Patriots: Some Panic

My biggest concern with New England has less to do with one bad Drake Maye game and more to do with what this offense looks like without A.J. Brown.

Brown is headed to injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and could miss roughly six weeks. That is a massive loss for an offense that was built around him being the centerpiece of the passing game. Brown was supposed to command defensive attention, create easier looks for everyone around him and give Maye a true difference-maker on the outside. Now, New England has to figure out where that production comes from for potentially the next month and a half.

Yes, the Patriots opened on a Wednesday night in Seattle against a very good defense. Maye threw for 178 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in the 13-10 loss. The matchup deserves context, but Maye was in the MVP conversation at the end of last season and entered this year being discussed and valued as one of the top quarterback options in fantasy. The expectations are higher now. When an offense loses a player like Brown, you need your quarterback to help elevate everything around him.

That’s where the concern starts for me. DeMario Douglas led New England with a 22.6% target share and a 5.66 Trinity Score, but even that was only league-average usage. Mack Hollins caught four passes for 51 yards while Hunter Henry never established a meaningful role in the passing game. Romeo Doubs gave fantasy managers nothing after signing a four-year, $68 million deal this offseason. Without Brown, somebody in this group has to emerge. New England needs another pass catcher to command targets and give Maye somewhere reliable to go with the football.

The good news is TreVeyon Henderson is working his way back. Henderson returned to practice Monday after missing the opener and his explosiveness could be exactly what this offense needs right now. Rhamondre Stevenson handled 22 touches and played 60 of 71 snaps in Week 1, but his 18 carries produced only 51 yards. Stevenson can still have a role, but Henderson gives New England another player capable of creating explosive plays. That becomes even more important when you lose the biggest source of juice in your passing game for potentially six weeks.

That’s why I’m at Some Panic. Maye can play better and the offense should improve, but losing your best pass catcher for potentially six weeks changes the math. Getting Henderson back helps replace some of that offensive firepower, but somebody else in this passing game still needs to step forward until Brown returns.

Los Angeles Rams: No Panic

There’s no way around it, the Rams laid an egg in Australia. Matthew Stafford completed 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards with an interception and Los Angeles lost 27-7 to San Francisco. It looked flat, tired and completely out of sync in the passing game. In fact, the Rams were the only team in the NFL that failed to score double-digit points in Week 1.Everybody else got to at least 10. Los Angeles scored seven.

That sounds like something that should send the Panic Meter flying in the other direction, but I’m willing to give this team some grace. San Francisco arrived in Melbourne a week before the game while the Rams got there less than two days before kickoff. Maybe next time, get to Australia a little earlier. Los Angeles outsmarted itself with the travel plan and I think that played a part in what we saw.

There were still enough things I liked to keep me from panicking. Puka Nacua caught five passes for 74 yards while commanding a 33.3% target share. His 6.91 Trinity Score was above league average and he was the only Rams pass catcher to clear that mark. I’d still like more. Get the football to Puka and find more ways to get Davante Adams involved.

Sean McVay is always going to use multiple personnel groupings and move pieces around, but the offense needs to make sure its best players remain the focal point. Puka and Adams should drive this passing game. The running game was encouraging, though. Kyren Williams had 11 carries for 41 yards and a touchdown while adding three receptions for another 24 yards. Blake Corum rushed 10 times for 54 yards. Together they produced 95 rushing yards on 21 attempts and both looked capable of keeping this backfield productive.

Terrance Ferguson gets a yellow flag. The snaps and routes are encouraging, but they need to turn into actual opportunities. He finished without a catch and his 3.55 Trinity Score showed very little meaningful involvement in the offense. I’m not treating him like a plug-and-play fantasy option until we actually see the football coming his way.

Being the only NFL team that failed to score 10 points in Week 1 is ugly. I’m just not ready to let one ugly morning on the other side of the world erase what I believe about this offense. Stafford needs to be better, Adams needs to be more involved and Nacua should continue to be the centerpiece. No Panic.

Atlanta Falcons Pass Catchers: Total Panic

I don’t want to start anybody in Atlanta who isn’t named Bijan Robinson. That’s where I’m at. As bad as you thought this thing could look with Cooper Rush, it was worse.

Rush completed 12 of 22 passes for 143 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Atlanta managed 238 total yards in a 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh. This offense was inoperable unless Robinson created something himself. Fortunately, Robinson is ridiculous. He handled 29 touches, produced 173 scrimmage yards and scored as a receiver. The game plan basically became give Bijan the football and pray he makes somebody miss.

Bijan is fine. Everybody else? I’m worried. Drake London caught two passes for 29 yards, added a six-yard carry and finished with 5.5 PPR points. His 4.78 Trinity Score reflected how little meaningful usage he received. Kyle Pitts Sr. had one target. One. He caught zero passes and finished with a 4.01 Trinity Score. There was simply nothing there from a usage standpoint.

These weren’t late-round dart throws. London carried a Yahoo ADP around 20th overall as the WR7. Pitts was being drafted around TE8. You paid for these guys to be difference-makers. Right now they’re attached to a quarterback situation that gives them almost no chance of paying off at that price.

I never thought I’d get to the point where I was begging for Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. to get back onto the field, but here we are. Tua at 20% might be better than Cooper Rush at 100%. Give me something. Until that happens, I don’t want to deal with this offense outside of Bijan. Total Panic.

Marvin Harrison Jr.: Total Panic

I’m tired of making excuses for Marvin Harrison Jr. Seriously, how long are we going to keep doing this? Arizona scored 26 points, gained 393 yards and Jacoby Brissett threw for 277 yards. This wasn’t some disaster offensive environment where nobody could produce.

Trey McBride caught nine passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. His 7.86 Trinity Score was elite. Kendrick Bourne caught all eight of his targets for 75 yards and posted a 7.30 Trinity Score. Michael Wilson caught five passes for 56 yards. Marvin Harrison Jr.? One catch, three targets and 33 yards. His 4.47 Trinity Score tells the same story as the box score: there simply wasn’t meaningful usage.

Now, the catch was beautiful. Great. I need more than one beautiful catch. At some point, pedigree has to become production. We keep saying Harrison is going to figure it out. We keep talking about the fourth overall pick, the prospect profile and the generational talent.

Here’s what we’ve actually figured out: he’s not the primary target in this offense. That’s Trey McBride. I’m not even sure Harrison is the clear secondary option right now. Michael Wilson continues to be involved and Arizona just showed us it is perfectly comfortable giving Kendrick Bourne underneath volume.

Do I believe Bourne is going to out-target Harrison every week? No. But I’m also not going to pretend Week 1 didn’t happen because I liked Harrison as a prospect three years ago. Right now, he looks like an expensive WR3 on a team that is using other wide receivers in the roles we keep waiting for him to occupy.

I’m tired of hearing that eventually the generational talent is going to take over. When it happens, come wake me up. Until then, I’m going to sleep. Total Panic on Marvin Harrison Jr.