Faisal Islam: How high will interest rates go?

Interest rates have risen to 4% and the Bank of England has indicated there are more rises to come. The question is how many? There is a split on the rate-setting committee here.

Three of the nine voting members referred to “rises” plural. One member voted for a bigger increase, to 4.25%. Three referred to just one more including governor Andrew Bailey.

My read on this is that the expectation is for one more rise in February. Two and done, but it depends.

It is painful for those on variable mortgages, but should not be seen as the start of a cycle of hikes.

Predicting where interest rates will go is like throwing darts at a board that constantly moves around the wall, with expectations of how long the Iran War will last and its impact on the economy and prices lurching from day to day.

The Bank’s forecasts indicate inflation is heading to just under 5% next spring as a typical household energy bill surges by 27% in January to £2,150 a year.

Why now?

Why have they raised now? High and rising inflation risks a further cycle of self fulfilling expectations of rising prices. It hasn’t been seen so far, however. The war has lasted for 9 months, and led to oil prices used in the forecast averaging $108 a barrel.

And yet on the day they have announced the rate rise, the oil price is actually 13% lower than that having fallen in the run up and after the US mid term elections, reflecting expectations or guesses that President Trump will now retreat or deescalate from the Iran war.

The other notable factor is that the UK economy is performing much better than forecasts and expectations. This is underlined by the Bank of England’s latest forecasts.

Growth has been 0.6%, and 0.5% in the first two quarters of the year. It is heading for 0.7%, the Bank said, between July and September, before slowing in the three months to the end of the year. Unemployment has stabilised, actually falling a little.

Some of this has fed through into a better performing currency, with sterling at its highest level since the Brexit referendum, when measured against a basket of currencies. This can help rein in inflation by making imports cheaper.

So, this is an unusual type of uncertainty. Even the expected further rise, probably in February next year is conditional on the war continuing.

The Bank of England stopped waiting for President Trump’s war to end today, but perhaps the Democrats’ resounding victory in the US midterm elections will stop the inflationary wave? The Bank has thrown a tentative first dart, and there is probably another to come.

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