Examining the Bears' defense numbers through 7 weeks, analytically

It was a generally-accepted truth ahead of 2026 that the majority of the Chicago Bears‘ shortcomings, as far as roster construction, existed on the defensive side of the ball. After all, even the best executives cannot address every roster hole over the course of a single offseason, so it might have been unreasonable to expect Ryan Poles to have made significant additions to each of the defensive line, linebackers, and secondary while also navigating salary cap constraints and preferring to retain the majority of future draft capital.

While that attitude will shift at least somewhat ahead of the impending trade deadline, the defense does remain a concern in certain respects. The ability to create consistent pressure with more standard defensive fronts rather than relying on exotic blitzes is one. The speed and health (sometimes together) in the secondary is another. In any case, the eye test can tell us plenty through seven weeks. And even though the eye test may indicate that the defensive situation isn’t quite as dire as we might have expected before the season began, we can also use this point in the calendar with the team’s “mini-bye” to take stock of where they more legitimately stack up defensively through an analytics lens.

Let’s talk general numbers first.

The Bears‘ defense (in seven games) has allowed 143 points, which ranks ninth in the league. Their 20.4 points allowed per game lands in the same spot. They’ve given up 2,194 total yards of offense (15th), with their 313.4 yards allowed per game a few notches higher, up at eighth. They’ve forced 10 turnovers, sitting them in seventh. These are, of course, objectively solid numbers. They’re not necessarily sitting up with the ranks of the league’s elite defensive squads, but a general output like that gets the job done.

Advanced stats paint a similar picture of quality, if unspectacular, production. Their -0.08 EPA per play allowed is 13th; they’re 11th in the league in EPA allowed per pass (-0.09) and 18th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.07). Their 37.9 percent pressure rate ranks 12th, and their 8.5 percent sack rate is all the way up in third. They’re also 16th in stuff rate against the run (16.7 percent). They’re also in the top 10 in average yards of separation (3.3) and top three in time before they create pressure (2.50 seconds). Again, there’s a whole lot of good here. Perhaps even more so than even the most optimistic of fans might have predicted.

Interestingly, there is one particularly glaring element of the defense: their 6.3 yards per play allowed is the league’s worst. However, that’s a clear byproduct of having a smaller sample with which to work then many of their counterparts throughout the league. Only the Minnesota Vikings have had their defense on the field less than the Bears’ 351 plays.

There’s another layer to this, however, where a few individual standouts are contributing heavily to the performance. Kyler Gordon, Dillon Thieneman, and Malik Muhammad, for example, are the team’s top three in pressure rate. As defensive backs. The category of stops — characterized as preventing the offense from reaching an adequate gain in relation to down & distance — has Devin Bush & Thieneman well above their contemporaries on defense. Ultimately, though, this is about the collective. And the collective has been far better than even the eye test might indicate as far as advanced stats are concerned.

Overall, there is a lot of nuance to the team’s defense. The top-heavy nature of it. The offense keeping it fresh. The visible shortcomings from players like Jaylon Johnson. Nevertheless, this unit has excelled as a collective in a manner that has them, in most respects, up among the league’s better defensive units. If anything, that makes the case for going defense-heavy to shore it all up at the trade deadline even more concrete.

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This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: Examining the Bears’ defense numbers through 7 weeks, analytically