COP31 Opens As Climate, Geopolitical Pressures Mount

The UN’s annual climate talks kick off Monday in Turkey as rising temperatures heighten the urgency of action, with financial constraints and geopolitical tensions complicating efforts to secure global cooperation.

More than 100,000 people are expected to attend COP31 in a sprawling expo centre in the Mediterranean seaside city of Antalya over the next two weeks.

Negotiators from nearly 200 countries are facing tough discussions over how to accelerate the energy transition and provide funds to help developing nations cope with the worsening climate emergency.

But observers say few major breakthroughs are expected as countries grapple with an oil price shock and geopolitical tensions fuelled by the US war with Iran and Russia’s conflict in Ukraine.

The climate emergency, meanwhile, continued to wreak havoc this year as punishing heatwaves baked Europe, wildfires raged in Indonesia, and a glacier collapse triggered devastating floods in Nepal.

An exceptionally strong El Niño climate phenomenon is forecast to peak later this year, adding to extreme weather and possibly helping to make 2026 or 2027 the hottest year on record.

The outlook is bleak: the United Nations warned in September that global temperatures were on course to exceed 1.5C above preindustrial levels, breaching the most ambitious threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

“Global leaders must pull us back from the brink and commit to rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels and expanding renewable energy, an imperative reinforced by the current energy affordability crisis,” said Rachel Cleetus, climate programme director at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

‘Clean’ Electrification?

Turkey is presiding over COP31, with Australia leading negotiations under an unusual arrangement that settled a dispute over who would host the conference.

The partners have branded the summit as the “implementation COP”, focusing on turning commitments into concrete action after years of pledges and ambitious announcements.

Turkey is promoting an “action agenda” alongside the formal negotiations that encourages countries to support non-binding pledges on issues from artificial intelligence to waste management.

Its centrepiece is an “electrification” drive to raise the share of global energy demand met by electricity from around 20 percent today to 35 percent by 2035.

But the initiative could become a source of friction.

The European Union has called for “clean” electrification, a term that could spark debate over the role of fossil fuels in the Turkish proposal.

Countries committed to transition away from fossil fuels in a landmark pact at COP28 in Dubai in 2023 but have struggled to agree on how to turn that pledge into action.

COP30 ended with a deal that made no explicit mention of fossil fuels after oil-producing countries opposed the language.

Instead, Brazil produced a voluntary “roadmap” with proposals for phasing out fossil fuels that each country can tailor to their circumstances.

Finance Fight

The EU, for its part, and other developed countries are under pressure from the developing nations to fulfil promises to provide funds they need to adapt to climate impacts and recover from extreme weather disasters.

A senior EU official warned that there would be “no political will” for extra funding pledges.

African countries are pushing for the COP31 agenda to include discussions on the tripling of adaptation finance, which aims to help poorer nations pay for measures such as building sea walls or planting drought-resistant crops.

Climate diplomacy is still missing a major player as President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement and has not sent officials to COP31.

A US congressional delegation, however, will come to Antalya, with Democrats beaming after last week’s historic US midterm election win.

While negotiations are facing two weeks of gruelling talks, “the mood is very good”, Azerbaijan’s chief negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev told AFP.

Countries need to turn “this positive spirit of being in a favourable environment into concrete, successful results”, he said.

AFP