College Football Playoff bracket for Week 10: Projecting top four seeds, first-round matchups, bubble teams

College Football Playoff bracket for Week 10: Projecting top four seeds, first-round matchups, bubble teams originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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“It’s easy as one, two, three … ” 

With apologies to The Jackson 5, the College Football Playoff committee is going to find that sorting out the one-, two- and three-loss teams in the first set of rankings is an absolute mess, especially when it comes to the Power 4 and Notre Dame. 

A total of 25 Power 4 teams (including Notre Dame) have two losses or less with four weeks left in the regular season and there is a spot reserved for a Group of 6 team. This is your weekly reminder that moving to a 24-team playoff would take out a lot of the guesswork here and that trimming this number down to a dozen teams is going to be much more fun, especially this season. Here is a quick cheat sheet for those Power 4 teams. 

How many undefeated teams are left in Power 4? 

Three teams. Miami (8-0), UCLA (8-0) and Utah (8-0) enter November with perfect records in their respective conferences. 

How many one-loss teams in Power 4? 

Seven Power 4 teams have one loss. That includes Georgia (7-1) and Kentucky (7-1) in the SEC, and BYU (7-1) and Texas Tech (7-1) fit that description in the Big 12. Indiana (8-1) is the lone one-loss team in the Big Ten, and Wake Forest (7-1) is the lone one-loss team in the ACC. The Irish also fit here. 

How many two-loss teams are left in Power 4? 

A total of 15 Power 4 teams have two losses. That conversation starts with the six two-loss teams in the SEC in Alabama (6-2), LSU (6-2), Missouri (6-2), Ole Miss (6-2), Tennessee (6-2), Texas (6-2). The Big Ten has four two-loss teams in USC (7-2), Ohio State (6-2), Iowa (6-2) and Northwestern (6-2). 

The ACC has three two-loss teams in Duke (6-2), SMU (6-2) and Virginia Tech (6-2), and the Big 12 still has a pair of two-loss teams in Arizona (6-2) and Houston (6-2). 

How do you craft a 12-team College Football Playoff bracket looking at that mess? We have the same field as last week, at least until the momentous Nov. 7 schedule shakes it all up. Here is Sporting News’ latest look at the top four seeds, the potential first-round matchups and five teams on the bubble.

MORE: First look at Nov. 7’s elite CFB slate

Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes 

No. 1 Miami (7-0, ACC champion)

Miami weathered an upset bid from Bill Belichick-led North Carolina in a 38-35 ACC thriller. The Hurricanes won, and that sets up the much-anticipated Week 10 showdown against Notre Dame. Darian Mensah (22 of 29, 274 yards, 3 TDs) is closing the gap in the Heisman race, and Malachi Toney (7-75, 2 TDs) isn’t far behind. Miami did allow 341 passing yards against the Tar Heels, and that’s a concern heading into the matchup against the Irish. 

No. 2 Georgia (7-1, SEC champion) 

The Bulldogs beat Florida 27-8 for the seventh straight victory in the series between the SEC rivals. Gunner Stockton (13 of 23, 101 yards) staked Georgia to a 24-0 half-time lead, and Georgia racked up 217 rushing yards. The Bulldogs’ defense – led by linebacker Chris Cole (9 tackles, 1 sack) had four sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Georgia remains the SEC’s most trustworthy team heading into a Week 10 matchup against Ole Miss. 

No. 3 UCLA (8-0, Big Ten at-large) 

Is UCLA the best bet in the Big Ten right now? The Bruins shut out Nevada 27-0 behind a nasty defense that allowed just 176 total yards and forced four interceptions. Ty Dieffenbach (16 of 30, 178 yards, TD) averaged 213.3 yards in three starts, and UCLA’s running game was less dominant with 125 yards. UCLA travels to Minnesota in Week 10. Will they be the second highest-ranked Big Ten team in the first CFP rankings?

No. 4 Utah (8-0, Big 12 champion) 

This is where the Big 12 champion landed in the final rankings in 2025. Utah scored two defensive TDs as part of a 42-point first half before throttling down in a 49-25 blowout at Cincinnati. Devon Dampier (22 of 29, 260 yards, 2 TDs, INT) was part of a rushing attack that piled up 268 yards, and tight end Hunter Andrews (5-112, TD) had a breakout performance. Now, comes the “Holy War” against BYU in the first top-10 matchup in the history of the series.

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Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups 

A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 10 of the college football season: 

No. 12 Boise State (6-1, Pac-12 champion) at No. 5 Notre Dame (7-1, Independent at-large) 

The Irish had a sluggish start against Navy. The Midshipmen ran 41 offensive plays in the first half and had a 13-7 lead before Nolan James’ 52-yard TD run. From there, Notre Dame dominated in a 35-13 victory that set up the showdown with Miami in Week 10. James (9-107, 2 TDs) led a rushing attack that had 204 yards on 7.0 yards per carry, and Jerome Bettis Jr. (6-78, TD) had a TD catch. CJ Carr (19 of 29, 210 yards, 2 TDs) hasn’t thrown an interception in his last four starts. 

No. 11 Texas (6-2, SEC at-large) at No. 6 Indiana (8-1, Big Ten at-large)

Indiana escaped in overtime for the second straight week in a 23-16 victory against Minnesota. Paddy McAteer hit a 60-yard field goal at the end of regulation, and Charlie Becker (8-149, TD) made an incredible TD catch in overtime. The bad news? Quarterback Josh Hoover (8 of 19, 119 yards, TD, INT) was replaced by Grant Wilson (9 of 17, 156 yards, TD) in the second half. The bye week comes at the right time for the defending national champions. 

Should Texas be ranked higher than Ohio State? The Longhorns do have the head-to-head victory against the Buckeyes and are coming off a 31-3 victory against Mississippi State. Arch Manning (16 of 20, 220 yards, 3 TDs) looked sharp against the Bulldogs, and 333-pound defensive tackle Maraad Watson’s 61-yard scoop-and-score was delightful. Texas travels to Missouri in Week 10. 

No. 10 BYU (7-1, Big 12 at-large) at No. 7 Kentucky (7-1, SEC at-large) 

The Wildcats are in uncharted territory with first-year coach Will Stein. Kenny Minchey (1,755 passing yards, 14 TDs, 1 INT) remains the key to the offense, and defensive backs Jordan Castel and Ty Bryant have four interceptions apiece. Kentucky faces three ranked opponents in success in Tennessee, Florida and Missouri the next three weeks. Kentucky has a good shot to make that 10-win mark. 

The Cougars bounced back with a 27-20 victory against Arizona State despite managing just 47 rushing yards on 1.6 yards per carry. Bear Bachmeier (19 of 30, 236 yards, TD, INT) built a two-score lead with a first-half TD pass to Kyler Kasper, and the defense piled up six sacks. The “Holy War” against Utah has huge Big 12 championship implications. Will running back LJ Martin return? 

No. 9 Ohio State (6-2, Big Ten at-large) at No. 8 LSU (6-2, SEC at-large)

Please give us this matchup either way. Ohio State lost 30-18 at USC, and freshman quarterback Luke Fahey (21 of 38, 268 yards, TD) had an uneven debut despite a run-heavy attack that put up 204 rushing yards. Jeremiah Smith (10-83, TD) still put up numbers, but the Buckeyes’ offense faces challenges the rest of the way. Ohio State still only has one loss in Big Ten play. They might not fall this far in the polls. 

The Tigers had a bye week — and first-year coach Lane Kiffin enters what should be a thrilling two-week stretch in Baton Rouge with home games against Alabama and Texas the next two weeks. LSU has an offense that averages 40.1 points per game, and the Tigers are 6-0 when it has less than turnovers in a game – and that will be the key for quarterback Sam Leavitt (2,173 yards, 17 TDs, 8 INTs).

Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams 

Alabama (6-2) 

The Crimson Tide had a bye week to prepare for another telling November under coach Kalen DeBoer. Alabama is 6-2 in the final month of the regular season under DeBoer the last two years – and another loss would make the playoff path complicated. Alabama has 122 rushing yards on 2.3 yards per carry in its last two games. Will that be remedied in a Week 10 matchup at LSU? 

Texas Tech (7-1)

The Red Raiders made a quarterback switch, and it paid off in a 34-26 victory against Arizona. Thomas Castellanos (11 of 24, 144 yards, 2 TDs) added 19 carries for 117 yards and a TD. That paired well with running back J’Koby Williams (14-175, TD), who clinched the victory with a 64-yard TD run in the fourth quarter. Texas Tech still has a viable path to the Big 12 championship game heading into a Week 10 matchup with West Virginia.

Ole Miss (6-2) 

The Rebels opened up a 45-15 blowout against Auburn with 31 second-half points, and that sets up the much-anticipated Sugar Bowl rematch with Georgia in Week 10. Shekai Mills-Knight (16-71, TD) filled the void left by injured running back Kewan Lacy, and Trinidad Chambliss (22 of 34, 263 yards, 2 TDs, INT) helped put away the Tigers. Ole Miss faces Georgia in Week 10. 

Wake Forest (7-1)

Wake Forest rolled up 538 total yards in a 51-7 blowout against Virginia. The Demon Deacons average 45.4 points per game through a five-game winning streak. Quarterback Gio Lopez passed for 229 yards, rushed for 64 and had a TD pass. Wake Forest had 309 rushing yards. Jake Dickert will have to deflect coaching carousel talk, but Wake Forest looks for real heading into Week 10 against Merrimack. 

USC (7-2) 

How high will the Trojans push up in the AP Poll after a defining victory against the Buckeyes under Lincoln Riley? Jayden Maiava (15 of 22, 222 yards, TD) made the right reads against the Buckeyes, and tight end Mark Bowman (3-79) had a 70-yard reception with the highlight-reel hurdle of the season. Trent Mosley (5-105, TD) is healthy, too. USC has a bye week before a Nov. 14 showdown at Indiana that will determine if this takes the next step.

MORE: Lincoln Riley cools the hot-seat chatter with Ohio State win

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