Chiefs Face Eye-Opening Prediction on Patrick Mahomes for 2026 Season

The Kansas City Chiefs fell short of the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade last season, and one NFL analyst believes they’ll face an uphill battle to make it back.

The Chiefs were all but officially eliminated when quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending injury in a December loss, with the Chiefs losing out their remaining games. The team must now contend with an aging roster and an uncertain future for Mahomes, which led Bleacher Report’s Brent Sobleski to predict the team would have a lot to prove in 2026.

Chiefs Drop to Bottom Half of the NFL in Power Ranking

Bleacher Report offered an early power ranking, putting the Chiefs in wholly unfamiliar territory at No. 17. Sobleski noted that the team has no certainty about when Mahomes will return.

“The Chiefs find themselves in a spot the organization hasn’t experienced in over a decade. Andy Reid and Co. are entering a campaign after not making the playoffs thanks to a non-winning season,” Sobleski wrote. “Furthermore, Patrick Mahomes experienced his first major injury and the timetable for his return remains up in the air.”

While Mahomes has made strides in his recovery and is on track to start the season, ESPN’s Adam Schefter warned that it could take longer for him to return to his previous form. Players often take much longer to fully return from a torn ACL, and Schefter speculated that Mahomes will be less than his MVP self.

“The real question will be not whether he plays, but how effective he’ll be,” Schefter said.

If Mahomes is unable to start the season, the Chiefs added an expensive insurance policy by trading for former first-round pick Justin Fields.

Chiefs Facing Other Concerns

Sobleski warned that it’s more than just the uncertainty around Mahomes that could be holding the Chiefs back in 2026. He noted that the team made few significant changes to the group that struggled through most of 2025, with several deficiencies on offense and defense that were not addressed.

“From a roster standpoint, Kansas City isn’t significantly better today than it was a year ago,” Sobleski wrote. “Kenneth Walker III’s addition should help balance the offense and place a greater emphasis on the Chiefs’ ground game. Otherwise, this squad has a lot to prove and shouldn’t be viewed as a Super Bowl contender.”

The Chiefs also face question marks at wide receiver, with No. 1 pass-catcher Rashee Rice facing an uncertain future after he landed in new trouble this offseason. He was sent to jail to serve a 30-day sentence for his felony street-racing conviction, a sentence that was initially put off to be served later but was implemented immediately due to a failed drug test.

Sobleski added that it will no longer be taken for granted that the Chiefs can contend in a competitive AFC.

“Kansas City must first prove it’s capable of returning to the postseason,” Sobleski wrote.

The Chiefs must also contend with a rising division, one where the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers are both on the rise and the Las Vegas Raiders just completed a significant overhaul centered on new quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

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