Can Barcelos' experience topple Rosa Jr.'s youth in UFC Fight Night 289 main event?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC Fight Night 289’s main event between Raul Rosas Jr. and Raoni Barcelos.

Staple info:

• Record: 12-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC
• Height: 5’9″ Age: 21 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 67″
• Last fight:Decision win over Rob Font (March 7, 2026)
• Camp: Black House MMA (California)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw-switcher/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

• + Youth MMA world champion
• ^ Undefeated as an amateur
• + NAGA grappling accolades
• + 2 KO victories
• + 6 submission wins
• + 6 first-round finishes
• + Aggressive pace and pressure
• + Steadily improving striking
• ^ Combos, shifts, setups
• + Hard kicks from the rear
• ^ Attacks all three levels
• + Strong inside the clinch
• + Solid takedown ability
• ^ Favors working from single-legs
• + Good transitional grappler
• ^ Always looks for back
• + Gritty scrambler
• +/- 1-0 in the UFC Apex

Staple info:

• Record: 22-5 MMA, 11-4 UFC
• Height: 5’7″ Age: 39 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 67″
• Last fight:Decision win over Montel Jackson (March 25, 2026)
• Camp: Laerte Barcelos Team/Teixeira MMA (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

• + RFA and Shooto Brazil featherweight titles
• + 5x national wrestling team champion (Brazil)
• + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (third degree)
• + Multiple grappling accolades
• + 8 KO victories
• + 3 submission wins
• + 5 first-round finishes
• + KO power
• + Solid boxing ability
• ^ Combos, bodywork, uppercut-hook returns
• + Hard leg kicks
• + Good kick counters
• + Strong inside the clinch
• ^ Trips, takedowns, strikes off breaks
• + Superb wrestling ability
• + Excellent transitional grappler
• +/- 4-2 in the Apex (5-2 in UFC small cages overall)
• +/- 4-0 against UFC-level southpaws

The main event in the Apex features a ranked bantamweight bout between Raul Rosas Jr. and Raoni Barcelos.

Still learning on the job as the youngest signee in UFC history, Rosas Jr. has been making some noticeable strides in his striking development. Improving on his habit of throwing a bit headfirst with his strikes, Rosas Jr. has been doing a better job of staying on balance as of late.

From better boxing technique to building off tools like front kicks, Rosas Jr. has been showing the development you’d like to see from a young and developing southpaw-primary stance-switcher. And when Rosas Jr. is feeling in stride, the Mexican fighter is not beyond doing a Dustin Poirier impression by stepping through shots that segue into shifting combinations that open up his right hand.

“El Nino Problema” also offers powerful kicks from the rear, but he’ll need to be respectful of Barcelos’ underrated counter acumen.

Although Barcelos may kick a bit less than you’d expect from a Pedro Rizzo-trained fighter, the Brazilian has a knack for catching his opponents’ kicks and parlaying them into takedowns. Barcelos is also a very capable counterpuncher, showing excellent eyes in exchanges.

I could clip Raoni Barcelos doing cool stuff all day…

LOVE this intercepting shuffle knee with the angle-off he hits against Simón pic.twitter.com/XbbzNYJuzk

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) September 25, 2026

A crafty, free-forming fighter, Barcelos is just as happy looking for interceptions on the feet as he is looking for last words off the breaks. And when Barcelos is able to establish his range off his lead hand, the 14-year pro will pick up the pace on both his bodywork and brutal right-hand variations alike.

Considering what the arguable crux of Rosas Jr.’s game has been thus far in his career, winning the wrestling will likely be paramount for the young Mexican on Saturday.

A willing wrestler and relentless scrambler, Rosas Jr. has been able to work through almost every scary spot and tough test in the octagon that’s not named Christian Rodriguez. Although Rosas Jr. primarily operates off single-leg snatches due to the open-stance dynamic in the majority of his fights, the 21-year-old can be a nightmare from bodylock variations if allowed onto his opponents’ hips.

From mat return to back-take threats, Rosas Jr. is a tireless worker from closed quarters. And when Rosas Jr. can get to positive positions or create scrambles on his terms, the Mexican prospect is great at finding his way to his favored staging point that is the rear mount position.

That said, Rosas Jr. will be facing his stiffest test to date in both the wrestling and submission grappling departments when he meets Barcelos.

A five-time wrestling champion with the Brazilian national team and third-degree black belt in jiu-jitsu, it’s safe to say that Barcelos is not your average BJJ practitioner in MMA. In fact, from his insanely flexible takedown game to his ability to hit the sickest foot sweeps you’ve ever seen, I’d argue that Barcelos is firmly an active Top 10 UFC takedown artist regardless of weight class.

Sick foot sweep here by Raoni Barcelos pic.twitter.com/4DdEHq83Ix

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) September 24, 2026

Nevertheless, Barcelos will still need to come correct when it comes to his defense for this matchup. Luckily for Barcelos, the Brazilian vet shows some promise from both a tactical and statistical perspective.

Whether we’re talking about Barcelos’ technical understanding of positions or his impressive 87 percent standing in the takedown defense department, he demonstrates good answers from positive and negative positions alike.

As I often say—knees from negative positions along the cage can quietly be the most damaging due to the pushing pressure of the positive side

Barcelos shows that in cool fashion here when Garbrandt goes to counter his head position from a wrestling perspective only to eat a knee pic.twitter.com/787yc7gj4o

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) September 24, 2026

Even on the handful of wild occasions where he was grounded, Barcelos showed solid get-up options that didn’t involve back exposure. From deep-half scrambles and half-guard wrestle-ups to the good old-fashioned ‘feet on the hips’ approach, Barcelos is an incredibly resourceful grappler from all positions.

And when there’s even an inkling of daylight for Barcelos to take a back, the Brazilian is quick to oblige given his ability to close the show from both rear and front-facing mounts.

The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the younger fighter, listing Rosas Jr. -168 and Barcelos +136 via FanDuel.

Between the 17-year age gap and MMA gamblers’ propensity to get tumescent at any opportunity to fade an aging fighter, I’m somewhat surprised to not see bettors keep that same energy for this fight (and credit to them, as this week’s main event is a much different offering than last weekend’s meeting between an under-appreciated and aging Brazilian vs. a Zoomer poster child).

I, however, am a bit torn here.

pic.twitter.com/OznW7YS1cN

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) September 6, 2024

Although I’d hate to make my classic mistake of taking the bait on an aging Brazilian fighter at plus money, I can’t help but find evidence for the underdog pick.

Whether we’re talking about five-round experience, Apex experience or positive records against southpaws, Barcelos has it all. And when looking at this from a stylistic perspective, Barcelos even holds court in the key area of wrestling skills and dictation.

Raoni Barcelos, who faces Montel Jackson at #UFCVegas116, is officially 3-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Huachin, Jones, Moret)

Like most orthodox fighters in MMA, Barcelos needs some time early to adjust to southpaws; but once he does—he’s really good at fighting them. pic.twitter.com/ctWbhcRkgf

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 23, 2026

I know Rosas Jr. is coming off a solid camp in Southern California with Marlon Vera and still has tons of room for growth given his age, but I still have a hard time siding with him here. Unless Barcelos’ age finally catches up with him and his stamina and staying power fall off a cliff, then I see him being the one to outlast much younger Rosas Jr. (who I believe is destined for the weight class Barcelos came from: featherweight).

A grindy fight going to decision is the most likely outcome, but I’ll pick Barcelos to put a stamp on his late-coming-out party by forcing a stoppage via strikes by the end of Round 4.

Prediction: Barcelos inside the distance

As the main event, Rosas Jr. and Barcelos are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10:10 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Can Barcelos’ experience topple Rosa Jr.’s youth in UFC Fight Night 289 main event?