Braves vs. Mets prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for July 28

The Mets (45-62) and the Braves (62-44) continue their three-game series tonight at Citi Field. New York ripped Atlanta in the opener last night, 14-3.

Atlanta struck first in the opening inning when Ronald Acuña Jr., playing his first game after missing 37 games with a strained hamstring, singled and eventually scored on an Ozzie Albies RBI infield hit. The Mets answered immediately when Francisco Lindor ripped an RBI triple off the wall in right field.

Lindor put New York ahead in the third inning with a two-run homer off Braves starter Martín Pérez, but Atlanta responded in the fourth. Albies launched a two-run homer to left-center field, his 18th of the season, tying the game at 3-3.

The game remained tied into the sixth inning before New York finally broke through against the Atlanta bullpen. Marcus Semien crushed a two-run homer off Connor Thomas to give the Mets a 5-3 lead. The floodgates then opened. In the seventh, Tyrone Taylor continued to swing a hot bat, blasting a three-run homer to extend the lead to 8-3. Bo Bichette later added a sacrifice fly, and the Mets sent the game completely out of reach with a five-run eighth inning. Lindor capped the outburst with his second homer of the night, a three-run shot that gave him six RBIs on the evening.

New York pounded out 19 hits, with Lindor, Semien, Taylor, Bichette, and rookie A.J. Ewing all enjoying three-hit games. Zac Thornton earned the victory after allowing three runs over 6⅓ innings, while Atlanta reliever Connor Thomas suffered one of the roughest outings of the season, surrendering 11 earned runs on 10 hits in just 2⅔ innings.

Tonight, Atlanta turns to its ace, Chris Sale (11-6, 2.19 ERA) with an eye on evening the series. Sale has once again been one of the National League’s most dominant starters. Over his last eight starts, the veteran has allowed 12 earned runs in 44 innings.

The Mets counter with Christian Scott (3-2, 3.13 ERA), who has quietly put together a strong season. Since the start of May, the 27-year-old has pitched 62 innings and allowed just 21 earned runs.

Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

• Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026

• Time: 7:10PM EST

• Site: Citi Field

• City: Queens, NY

• Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, BravesVision, SNY

Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, BravesVision, SNY

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The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Atlanta Braves (-163), New York Mets (+135)

• Spread: Braves -1.5 (+109), Mets +1.5 (-131)

• Total: 7.5 runs

Moneyline: Atlanta Braves (-163), New York Mets (+135)

Spread: Braves -1.5 (+109), Mets +1.5 (-131)

• Braves: Chris Sale
  Season Totals: 111.0 IP, 11-6, 2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 134K, 26 BB

• Mets: Christian Scott
  Season Totals: 63.1 IP, 3-2, 3.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 78K, 29 BB

Braves: Chris Sale
Season Totals: 111.0 IP, 11-6, 2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 134K, 26 BB

Mets: Christian Scott
Season Totals: 63.1 IP, 3-2, 3.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 78K, 29 BB

• Marcus Semien is 6-18 (.333) with 3 HRs against Chris Sale

• With 3 hits last night, Semien is 6-28 (.214) in July

• Francisco Lindor is 16-41 (.390) with 2 HRs against Sale

• Lindor went 3-5 last night to snap a 1-12 skid over his previous 3 games

• Michael Harris II is 4-5 (.800) in his career against Christian Scott

• Harris has hit in 5 straight games (7-21)

• Drake Baldwin has hit in 6 straight games (8-23)

Marcus Semien is 6-18 (.333) with 3 HRs against Chris Sale

With 3 hits last night, Semien is 6-28 (.214) in July

Francisco Lindor is 16-41 (.390) with 2 HRs against Sale

Lindor went 3-5 last night to snap a 1-12 skid over his previous 3 games

Michael Harris II is 4-5 (.800) in his career against Christian Scott

Harris has hit in 5 straight games (7-21)

Drake Baldwin has hit in 6 straight games (8-23)

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The Braves are 56-50 on the Run Line this season

The Mets are 49-58 on the Run Line this season

The OVER has cashed 52 times in Atlanta’s 106 games this season (52-48-6)

The OVER has cashed 48 times in New York’s 107 games this season (48-50-9)

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

• Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.

• Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Braves on the Run Line.

• Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 7.5

Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.

Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Braves on the Run Line.

Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 7.5

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