Auburn’s Path to Bowl Game Clear but Steep

Auburn football lost big to LSU last week, but the season is far from over. The Tigers’ path forward is clear, but very difficult. They need to win the rest of their November games to hit nine wins for the first time since 2019. Experts across the country believe the team can pull this off despite the recent loss. The path is hard, but the math is simple.

USA TODAY Sports sticks with a Birmingham Bowl projection featuring Auburn against Memphis for the third week in a row. Memphis leads the all-time series, yet Auburn won the last meeting in that same bowl back in 2015. Erick Smith of USA TODAY Sports says the Tigers will play close to home again. This is a realistic goal if the team handles its upcoming opponents.

Three games define the season

Auburn plays a brutal schedule before the final stretch. The team faces Ole Miss on Saturday in what could be the toughest test of the month. If the Tigers win that road game, the rest of the schedule looks much more manageable. They then play three teams they should beat: Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Samford. Finally, they end the regular season on the road facing their in-state rivals, Alabama at Tuscaloosa. Winning out is the only way to reach the nine-win mark.

ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura projects a matchup with USF in the Gasparilla Bowl if the team keeps winning. Another ESPN expert, Mark Schlabach, has tweaked his pick to put Auburn against Illinois in the Birmingham Bowl. CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford also sees a trip to Birmingham, but he predicts a game against Boston College on December 29. That would be the first time since 2014 that Auburn has faced an ACC team in a postseason game.

The experts see a winnable path

Athlon Sports has changed its tune after predicting an Independence Bowl game last week. In the Birmingham Bowl, Steven Lassan now predicts Auburn will meet NC State. NC State fired its head coach and has a shaky record, but the Wolfpack can still find new life. ESPN predicts the team will win two of its final five games to get there. On3’s Brett McMurphy sees a different destination, pitting Auburn against Houston in the Liberty Bowl.

The consensus is clear: Auburn can make a bowl if they stop the bleeding. The team lost 38-17 at home to a top-20 LSU squad. That loss hurts, but it does not end the season. The schedule in November offers a clear shot at redemption. Fans should watch the Ole Miss game closely, because that result will decide everything. If the Tigers win that one, the rest of the path opens up for a nine-win finish.