Analyst picks Colts’ X-factor for 2026 NFL season

ESPN analyst Seth Walder selected an X-factor for each NFL team this season, and his pick for the Indianapolis Colts is an expected one — quarterback Daniel Jones.

Through 10 games last season, Jones and the Colts‘ offense were red-hot. You name the metric, and chances are that Jones was ranked highly.

During that span, he was fourth in completion rate, fourth in passing yards, fourth in yards per attempt, and threw 13 touchdowns to only two interceptions. As a result, the offense was among the highest-scoring units in football.

“He was second in QBR, second in yards per dropback, fourth in turnover rate, sixth in completion percentage over expected (per Next Gen Stats) and third in sack rate. He was buoyed by a strong running game, but those are great numbers,” Walder wrote.

Advertisement

“He was second in QBR, second in yards per dropback, fourth in turnover rate, sixth in completion percentage over expected (per Next Gen Stats) and third in sack rate. He was buoyed by a strong running game, but those are great numbers,” Walder wrote.

An Achilles injury, unfortunately, ended Jones’ season early. He was also playing through a fibula injury before that as well.

Yet as good as Jones was to start the year, defenses did begin to catch on and were posing greater challenges for this Colts’ offense. But because of Jones’ injury, we never got to truly see how he and Shane Steichen would counter.

“His efficiency dropped over the rest of his season, as he played with a fibula injury before tearing his Achilles in early December,” added Walder.

“His efficiency dropped over the rest of his season, as he played with a fibula injury before tearing his Achilles in early December,” added Walder.

So the big question facing Jones and the Colts in 2026 is, can he return to that early-season form?

As of now, Jones appears to be on track to be ready for Week 1. When asked during OTAs, he said that he would “absolutely” be ready for the season opener, although there are still hurdles for him to overcome.

Jones’ level of play will determine how good the Colts are this season, which makes him an obvious choice for X-factor, but a clear pick as well.

“There’s also Jones’ history, which is nowhere near as strong as what he showed in the first half of 2025,” added Walder. “Which version of Jones will the Colts get coming off the injury? That will mean everything to their 2026 prospects.”

“There’s also Jones’ history, which is nowhere near as strong as what he showed in the first half of 2025,” added Walder. “Which version of Jones will the Colts get coming off the injury? That will mean everything to their 2026 prospects.”

This article originally appeared on Colts Wire: Analyst picks Colts’ X-factor for 2026 NFL season