Adjusting expectations for Kentucky football after 3-1 start

Before we start to preview South Carolina, I thought it would be good to take a look at this Kentucky Wildcats team after the first month of the season. Will Stein has his Wildcats with a 3-1 record and ranked in the top 25 after the month of September. Kentucky has one of the toughest schedules in college football, and we knew that coming in but they have exceeded expectations early. Some of the games on the schedule look a lot different four games into the season, so it is time to adjust expectation for this Kentucky football team in year one under Coach Stein.

Kentucky has the 11th overall SOR (strength of record) to this point, not a lot of teams have played a tougher schedule to start than the Wildcats after playing Alabama and a road trip to Texas A&M. No one expected Kentucky to get an upset in College Station, and it was a dominant victory. Kentucky led the Crimson Tide for 40 of 60 minutes before the game complete flipped and snowballed. There are plenty of reasons the Wildcats are ahead of schedule in year one of the Will Stein era.

Kentucky had high expectations for this offensive line in the offseason, and the coaching staff was not afraid to let people know about it. They struggled at times against Alabama, but this unit has improved every single week. Offensive line coach Cutter Leftwich has done a phenomenal job with this group and stats suggest they are one of the best offensive lines in the country. This is the position group that can allow Kentucky to have a special season and keep winning football games.

Parker Fleming (@statsowar) released a couple of charts on FBS teams, and one in particular shows Kentucky leads the country in Yards Before Contact in the run game. Kentucky is one of just three teams that are averaging over four yards before contact in the country. Kentucky is winning at the point of attack and getting movement at the line of scrimmage that would make the late great offensive line coach John Schlarman proud. They have been pretty exceptional in pass protection as well.

One way to evaluate run games in college football is to compare scheme and OL (yards before contact) with RB ability (yards after contact):

Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability

(garbage time excluded, small sample and opponent caveats… pic.twitter.com/9hHsCYmN3x

— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 28, 2026

According to PFF, the Wildcats have allowed 14 total sacks, hits and pressures on the quarterback this season; only Missouri has allowed fewer through the first month of the season among SEC teams. PFF also shows that only nine offensive lineman have yet to allow a pressure this season, and Kentucky is the only team with two players on this list. Center Coleton Price and right guard Tegra Tshabola are the two on that list, and all five of Kentucky’s offensive lineman were apart of PFF’s All-SEC team of the week after their performance against South Alabama. The big blue wall is back.

Kentucky has already shown their proof of concept this season on both sides of the football. Coach Stein has shown his offense allows his quarterback to play efficient and use quick game/RPO schemes to get the ball out quickly to their playmakers. We have seen a ton of eye candy, unique formations and versatile personnel groupings. On opponent adjusted metrics, Kentucky is among the elite groups in EPA/play on offense.

The Wildcats defense have shown proof of concept as well, as Jay Bateman’s scheme has shown their versatility with fronts and coverage rotations on the back end. We have seen the simulated pressure looks, one led to a direct interception for Sam Greene against Texas A&M. This defense has done exactly what they said it would be, they have allowed some yards but they are really good at creating havoc plays and turnovers. On opponent adjusted metrics, Kentucky’s defense is also among the elite groups in EPA/play on defense.

We saw the proof of concept play out in College Station. Kentucky’s offense was dominant, efficient and we saw Kenny Minchey look like a high level quarterback. Kentucky’s defense allowed yardage, but made game changing plays and rattled quarterback Marcel Reed. The third quarter against Texas A&M was the best quarter of football in Kentucky’s program history.

Kentucky’s October looks a lot different than it did in July, as they have a massive road game on Saturday against a South Carolina team that is reeling in pretty much every aspect. LSU will come to town as Kentucky brings back the beloved Power K, and the Tigers have lost a few key starters over the past two weeks. Oklahoma is one of the more shocking disappointments in the SEC, and they have a lot to do to turn this season around. Vanderbilt has regressed with Diego Pavia, and getting them at home is one of the few games left that Kentucky will be favored in.

There is a real chance Kentucky goes 3-1 in October like they did in September, which would set the Wildcats up for a massive November. Kentucky has a tough road trip to Neyland Stadium off of the bye week, and then they host Jon Sumrall’s Florida Gators who look unbelievable to start. A road trip to Missouri is interesting, weird things happen in CoMo, but this is a winnable game for Kentucky. Then they end the season against Louisville for the Governor’s Cup, and the Cardinals playoff hopes may already be dead following a home loss to Wake Forest.

Kentucky has a real chance to go 8-4 in Will Stein’s first season. I think this team has a lot of advantages on the line of scrimmage moving forward, which cannot be overstated. The Wildcats need to win this weekend against the Gamecocks and set up a phenomenal environment when they host LSU. Kentucky has a great opportunity ahead of them, but they have to get the win this weekend as it is maybe the most important game on the schedule.

This article originally appeared on UK Wildcats Wire: Adjusting expectations for Kentucky football after 3-1 start