Sports

49ers are 6-0, and the computers say it'll only get worse (for everyone else)

Nairavoice · Oct 24, 2026 · 3 min read

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0. Brock Purdy is playing like an MVP front-runner. Kyle Shanahan has already exorcised his Seahawks demons. And Raheem Morris has the defense once again among the NFL’s best. On the field, the Niners, who haven’t even realized their final form thanks to a comically crowded injured reserve, have looked darn near unbeatable. And according to ESPN’s computers, they just might be.

Of San Francisco’s 11 remaining games, ESPN Analytics’ Matchup Predictor has the 49ers the favorites in all 11, as spotted by a fan online Friday. Only one of those games looks like a true toss-up according to the Worldwide Leader in Sports’ stats department: Week 16 in Kansas City. The 49ers have a 50.5% chance of winning that game:

Week 7:49ers 79.1%, Falcons 20.7%

Week 8: Bye

Week 9: 49ers 83.6%, Raiders 16.3%

Week 10:49ers 64.2%, Cowboys 35.5%

Week 11:49ers 67.9%, Vikings 31.8%

Week 12:49ers 65.7%, Seahawks 34%

Week 13:49ers 85.9%, Giants 14%

Week 14:49ers 65.7%, Rams 34%

Week 15:49ers 74.5%, Chargers 25.3%

Week 16: 49ers 50.5%, Chiefs 49.1%

Week 17:49ers 87.5%, Eagles 12.5%

Week 18:49ers 82%, Cardinals 17.8%

The 49ers’ opponents to date are just 12-22-1, the NFL’s third-easiest schedule by opponent win percentage to start the season. The 49ers are tied for sixth-easiest remaining schedule by opponent win percentage (.461). But ESPN’s Matchup Predictor goes far deeper than simply strength of schedule.

According to a 2016 blog post from ESPN, in addition to team strength, opponent strength and home-field advantage, it also takes into account a variety of unique inputs: 1) On-field performance in previous games (“measured by expected points added per play”), 2) rest (“an extra week of rest is worth about 1 point per game”), 3) altitude (“stadium altitude was found to be predictive”), 4) distance traveled (“hosting a team with a significant travel distance is worth about half a point per game”), 5) seasonal effects, and 6) quarterback injuries, suspensions and absences.

“All of these factors are combined to make up each single-game projection,” ESPN explains. “Then each team’s season is simulated 10,000 times to produce its chance to win its division, make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl and pick first in the NFL draft, among other interesting projections. Ultimately the Football Power Index gives us a tool to project that future. In its first publicly available season, the FPI favorite won 63 percent of NFL games, which is comparable with the Vegas closing line, and proved to be well calibrated in a small sample. Because of the level of detail in each simulation and the exhaustive process in building the model (see details on process here) we are confident that it will be remain of the most accurate systems out there for the upcoming season.”

While the game-by-game Matchup Predictor has the 49ers becoming the third team since 1972 to finish the regular season undefeated, ESPN’s Football Power Index projects the Niners finish with 14.1 wins and 2.9 losses. They currently have a 97.5% chance of winning the division, a 46.2% chance of making the Super Bowl, and a 27.3% chance of winning it – all best in the league.

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