2027: Election credibility already being decided before polling day – Adebayo

The Head of Research and Programmes at Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI), Oluwafemi John Adebayo, has warned that the credibility of Nigeria’s 2027 general election is already being shaped long before Nigerians head to the polls, saying the country’s democratic future depends on what happens before election day.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST on Monday, Adebayo said while Nigeria appears to be making administrative preparations for the election, the country is yet to address the deeper issues that determine whether an election will be free, fair and credible.

According to him, “The credibility of the 2027 general election will not be decided only on election day. It is already being determined in party primaries, courtrooms, security planning meetings, voter registration centres, newsrooms and the daily decisions of institutions entrusted with protecting Nigeria’s democracy.”

Adebayo noted that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has published its timetable, political parties have conducted their primaries, candidates are being uploaded to the nomination portal, while voter registration has generated renewed interest among Nigerians.

However, he argued that elections should not be judged only by administrative activities.

“The real question is not whether Nigeria is preparing for the 2027 general election. It is whether Nigeria is preparing for a credible democratic contest,” he said.

He explained that an election can follow its timetable and still fail to inspire public confidence if citizens believe the outcome had been determined before voting begins.

According to him, many Nigerians remain interested in politics despite the country’s economic challenges.

He said voter registration continues to attract participation, while young people are actively engaging in political debates, fact-checking politicians and creating civic content across social media platforms.

“The dominant narrative is often that Nigerians have become apathetic. The evidence suggests something more nuanced. Many citizens have not disengaged from politics; they have become sceptical of institutions,” Adebayo stated.

He added that many citizens now ask whether their votes will truly influence political outcomes.

On political parties, Adebayo said the quality of the 2027 election has already been affected by the conduct of party primaries.

He said the primaries were characterised by elite influence, candidate imposition, money politics, violence, litigation and internal divisions instead of transparent democratic processes.

According to him, governors played significant roles in determining candidates within the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, while opposition parties have also struggled with leadership disputes, parallel structures and court cases.

“Political parties are the gatekeepers of democracy. When they struggle to conduct credible internal elections, the credibility of the general election begins to erode long before the first ballot is cast,” he said.

Speaking on INEC, Adebayo acknowledged that the electoral umpire has continued its preparations by releasing the election timetable, engaging political parties and managing the nomination process.

He, however, said the commission still faces the challenge of rebuilding public trust following the 2023 general election.

“Electoral commissions conduct elections. Public confidence determines whether elections are believed. For INEC, restoring institutional trust may prove just as important as delivering logistical efficiency,” he said.

Adebayo also identified insecurity as one of the biggest threats to the 2027 elections.

He pointed to insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, communal clashes and political violence across different parts of the country, warning that fear could discourage citizens from voting.

He said security agencies must go beyond deploying officers on election day by focusing on intelligence gathering, conflict prevention, coordinated planning and maintaining political neutrality.

He also stressed on the importance of the media and civil society organisations in safeguarding Nigeria’s democracy.

According to him, journalists now do more than cover campaigns, as they also verify information, expose misinformation and investigate electoral irregularities.

He added that civil society groups remain critical through election observation, voter education, conflict monitoring, early warning systems and holding public institutions accountable.

While acknowledging that Nigeria appears largely prepared administratively, Adebayo maintained that the political environment remains uncertain due to unresolved party crises, security concerns, public distrust in electoral institutions and continued court cases involving political parties.

He concluded that Nigeria must focus on strengthening democratic institutions rather than preparing only for election day.

“The election is less than six months away. The more important question is whether Nigeria will spend that time preparing only for an election or preparing for the democracy that gives elections their meaning,” he said.