2027: Debate, permutations as Tinubu retains Shettima

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision to retain Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election has triggered fresh political debates across the country, with analysts, party supporters and voters offering different interpretations of the move.
It would be recalled that on Friday, the Nigerian president and presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, retained Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election.

While some describe the decision as a strategic calculation that could strengthen the APC’s chances of retaining power, others argue it reinforces concerns over the party’s Muslim-Muslim ticket and national inclusiveness.

In separate exclusive interviews with DAILY POST, analysts and prospective voters shared contrasting views on the implications of the President’s decision.

Muslim-Muslim ticket still a winning formula for APC – Aminu Rabiu

A political analyst in Kano, Aminu Rabiu has said the All Progressives Congress (APC) believes its Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket remains a winning formula ahead of the 2027 general election.

According to him, the party retained Vice President Kashim Shettima because it expects the combination to once again deliver victory.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, Aminu said President Bola Tinubu’s decision to retain Shettima signals unity, continuity and confidence within the ruling party.

“It means there is relative understanding, cohesion and unity within the ruling APC,” he said.

“It means that continuing with Kashim Shettima is more rewarding than dropping him. Dropping Shettima would have been politically catastrophic for the ruling APC.”

According to him, the decision shows that the party believes keeping the same ticket will improve its chances of retaining power in 2027.

“It signals continuity. It signals unity. Returning Kashim Shettima will be more rewarding and will not cost the party its bid to retain power in 2027,” he said.

Aminu argued that the APC’s decision was based on political calculations, insisting the same-faith ticket still has electoral value.

“The calculation of the Muslim-Muslim ticket is still relevant and will help them win again in 2027. It will still fetch them a large number of votes in both the North and the southern part of Nigeria.

“Politics is calculation. If they knew it would not favour them, they would not do it. If the result would be catastrophic, they would have changed the calculation.”

Explaining why there was widespread speculation before the announcement, the political analyst said neither President Tinubu, Vice President Shettima nor the APC had publicly discussed whether the vice president would be retained or replaced.

“There were many speculations because neither Tinubu, Shettima nor the APC ever spoke directly about dropping or retaining Kashim Shettima ahead of the 2027 election,” he said.

He noted that many Christian members of the APC had pushed for a change to a Muslim-Christian ticket in the interest of fairness and religious balance.

“There were many speculations, especially from Christian members of the APC. They wanted the party to maintain balance, fairness, justice and unity by choosing a Christian running mate,” he said.

Aminu also said international developments contributed to the debate, particularly comments made by United States President Donald Trump on the alleged persecution of Christians in Nigeria.

“There was also the issue of Donald Trump and America, where there were claims of Christian genocide in Nigeria. Some people thought Tinubu would replace Shettima with a Christian to appease America and neutralise that narrative from America and the West,” he said.

“But Tinubu returned Shettima because he believes keeping him is more rewarding, while dropping him would be catastrophic.”

On the importance of a vice-presidential candidate in determining election outcomes, Aminu said the running mate plays a significant role but is not the deciding factor.

“A vice-presidential candidate is important, but not that decisive. The presidential candidate remains the most important factor,” he said.

“The personality, regional background, ethnicity and religion of the presidential candidate matter more in determining the outcome of a presidential election in Nigeria.”

He explained that Tinubu initially chose Shettima in 2023 to strengthen support in Northern Nigeria.

“The major reason Tinubu picked Shettima in 2023 was to appeal to Muslim voters in the North-West, North-East and other parts of Northern Nigeria, and it worked,” he said.

“They got massive votes in the North-West and North-East. Even in Kano State, where the Kwankwasiyya movement is dominant, Tinubu still secured a very high percentage of votes. Tinubu got over 500,000 votes, while Kwankwaso had over 900,000 votes, showing that the votes were shared.”

According to Aminu, the APC is relying on the same strategy because it proved successful during the last election.

“They tested it in 2023 and it gave them what they wanted. That is why they are determined to test it again in 2027.

“They want to see whether it will produce the same result it produced in the last election. It is a tested and trusted pattern.”

Speaking on the impact of Shettima’s retention in the North-East and the wider North, the analyst maintained that the vice president’s regional, ethnic and religious background remains an important political advantage.

“It has been tested and trusted that a vice-presidential candidate’s regional, ethnic and religious background matters a lot in politics,” he said.

“They believe Shettima helped them secure massive support in the North in 2023, and they want to repeat that success.”

Commenting on the opposition, Aminu said he does not believe opposition parties currently have the strength to pose a serious challenge to the APC.

“It is obvious that the opposition parties have been weakened through court cases, legal battles and internal disputes,” he said.

“I don’t think they can give the ruling party a serious challenge. They may respond with press statements, but the real test will come during the election.”

He further claimed that the ruling party had benefited from divisions within the opposition.

“The APC has succeeded in weakening the main opposition. Before, many opposition leaders such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Rotimi Amaechi were together in the ADC, but now they have moved to different political parties,” he said.

“They have been divided, and because of that, I don’t think the opposition can seriously challenge the ruling party. They will try their best, but I don’t think they can neutralise the APC.”

Aminu, however, predicted that although the APC has an advantage, the 2027 presidential election would still be closely contested.

“My prediction is that the ruling party will narrowly return to power.”

“It is going to be a narrow victory, but I believe the APC has a better chance because of its political calculations and the decision to retain the Tinubu-Shettima ticket,” he said.

Removing Shettima could have cost APC north – Political Analyst, Ojo

Also speaking, political analyst, Kabiru Ojo, said that President Tinubu’s decision to retain Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election saved the All Progressives Congress (APC) from losing support across Northern Nigeria.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, Ojo said removing Shettima would have created the impression that President Tinubu uses and dumps loyal political allies, a move he believes could have turned many northern political leaders against the APC.

“President Tinubu retaining Kashim Shettima ahead of the 2027 election is a great move for the APC because if Tinubu had rejected Shettima, he would have lost a lot of northern governors,” he said.

“It would have been clear to them that he is a man who uses people and dumps them. That would have remained in their memory.”

According to him, such a decision could have united northern politicians against the President and strengthened the opposition.

“With that, northerners could have united against him to bring him down. The opposition would also have gained more strength because if Shettima had been replaced with a northern Christian, many northern Muslims would have moved to the opposition, especially to Atiku, who is also their son,” he said.

“So, dropping Shettima could have been a great loss to the APC.”

Ojo noted that there had been widespread speculation before the APC announced its vice-presidential candidate, following pressure from the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) for the party to replace the Muslim-Muslim ticket with a Muslim-Christian ticket.

“There was much speculation before the announcement because the Christian Association of Nigeria was pressuring Mr President that if he needed Christian votes, he should change from a Muslim-Muslim ticket to a Muslim-Christian ticket,” he said.

He also claimed that international political developments may have influenced discussions around the choice of a running mate.

“At the same time, he was also looking at international politics and thinking about President Donald Trump’s support. Since Trump had spoken about Christian genocide, he might have thought that choosing a Christian running mate could attract support for his re-election bid.

“However, after looking at both sides, I think he realised that losing the support of northern Muslims would be more damaging. That is why he chose to retain Shettima so the northern Muslims would not unite against him.”

The political analyst said Shettima’s influence within the North-East and among APC governors also played a major role in the decision.

“As Shettima is concerned, the APC governors in the North-East are loyal to him. By retaining him, those governors will continue to work for Tinubu, and that will help him record victory in the North-East.

“But if Shettima was not there, automatically Tinubu would lose the North-East.”

Speaking on the importance of selecting a vice-presidential candidate, Ojo said every presidential candidate must choose someone with strong regional acceptance.

“The choice of a vice president has a significant impact on a presidential election. Choosing a vice president who is widely accepted in his region gives an added advantage to your victory. That is why politicians think carefully before choosing their running mate,” he said.

He also referred to opposition politics, saying the selection of a running mate can shape electoral outcomes.

“That is why the opposition was not happy when Peter Obi left the ADC because there were expectations of an Atiku-Obi ticket. Obi is well accepted in his region, and such a joint ticket would have boosted their votes.”

Ojo further described Shettima as one of President Tinubu’s most loyal political allies, recalling his role during the APC presidential primary of the 2023 election.

“Many APC leaders see Shettima as someone who is very loyal to Mr President. They saw how he took the political bullets for Tinubu during the APC primary election..

“If you remember, after Tinubu made remarks about the late President Muhammadu Buhari during the primary period, many northern leaders became upset. It was Shettima who stepped in, explained Tinubu’s role in Buhari’s victory and calmed the tension.”

He said many party members believed that removing Shettima after such loyalty would have damaged Tinubu’s reputation in the North.

“They believed that if Tinubu could betray someone like Shettima, then there is nobody he cannot betray.

“So if Shettima had been removed, the entire North could have united against him. That would have been a disaster for his re-election.”

Ojo, however, said the outcome of the 2027 election would still depend on the campaign and the mood of northern voters.

“They were lucky to retain Shettima, and that will make the election very tough. But we still do not know what will happen until the campaigns begin because many northern youths are angry with the Tinubu administration,” he said.

“So, let us wait and see whether Shettima can influence victory for Tinubu in the North-East and North-West.”

Commenting on the opposition, Ojo said many of Tinubu’s rivals would have preferred that the President made a different choice.

“For the opposition, they would have welcomed it if Tinubu had chosen a northern Christian. Deep inside, they wanted him to make that mistake,” he said.

“Now that he has retained Shettima, every party will continue its campaign. Atiku will campaign on insecurity and what they see as the government’s failures, while Peter Obi will also continue his campaign.”

He added that although the Muslim-Muslim ticket may still influence some voters, he believes its impact may not be as significant as it was in 2023.

“Obi will still get some votes because of the Muslim-Muslim ticket, but not as much as in 2023 because many Christians have benefited from the Tinubu administration. Because of that, some people may no longer see the Muslim-Muslim ticket as being against any religion,” Ojo said.

Tinubu’s choice to retain Shettima sends wrong message – Jigawa voter

A young voter from Jigawa State, Rabiu Muhammad, criticised the APC for retaining Vice President Kashim Shettima as President Bola Tinubu’s running mate for the 2027 presidential election, describing the decision as one that sends the wrong message to Nigerians.

Muhammad said the APC had opted for continuity by keeping the Tinubu-Shettima ticket, but argued that the move failed to address concerns over religious inclusion and national unity.

“My reaction is that APC has decided to go with continuity. They believe keeping President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima together will help them finish the policies they started,” he said.

He, however, maintained that many Nigerians remain uncomfortable with the Muslim-Muslim ticket.

“Many Nigerians still have concerns about the Muslim-Muslim ticket. For some people, it’s about party loyalty, while for others it’s about fairness and national unity. But to me, it is a colossal mistake to continue with the same-faith ticket for the stability of the national emotion,” he said.

Muhammad also disclosed that the decision had influenced his choice ahead of the 2027 general election, saying he would vote for another candidate.

“Yes, it will influence my voting choice. Elections are about who can represent all Nigerians fairly. When a ticket does not reflect the religious and regional diversity of the country, it sends the wrong message,” he said.

“Because of this, I have decided that in 2027 I will vote for a different option.”

Speaking on the qualities he expects from a vice president, the Jigawa voter said the occupant of the office should be committed to serving every Nigerian, irrespective of religion or region.

“I expect a Vice President to be a leader for all Nigerians, not a section of the country.

“The qualities I look out for in a vice president include integrity, an independent mind, strong experience and competence across different areas of leadership. Such a person should be able to unite Nigerians and put the country’s interest above every other consideration,” he said.

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