2026 World Cup betting, odds: Betting public heavily backing USMNT against Paraguay

The U.S. men’s national team opens its 2026 World Cup campaign on Friday night at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California (9 p.m. ET, FOX) as a solid favorite against Paraguay in the first match for Group D.

Not surprisingly, the betting public is heavily backing the home team to get a victory in its World Cup debut on home soil.

The USMNT is a +110 favorite on the three-way line at sportsbooks to win, with Paraguay at +280 and a draw at +220. At BetMGM, 88% of the wagers and 90% of the money were on the United States to win, as of Friday morning. The avalanche of U.S. money was similar at other sportsbooks, with 92% of bets and over 70% of the betting action on the U.S. to win at DraftKings.

The over/under for the match is set at 2.5 goals, and the juice has moved significantly to the under (opened -130, now at -185).

“The sharps are on Paraguay plus half a goal and the public is on USA side as expected,” Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told Yahoo Sports in a text message on Friday afternoon.

The two teams met back on Nov. 15 in an international friendly that the U.S. won 2-1. Gio Reyna scored in the fourth minute in that game, while striker Folarin Balogun netted the second-half game winner in 71st minute.