2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Preview: Can the offense rebound after yet another OC swap?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hired a new offensive coordinator every offseason since 2023. Former Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is the next coach up, taking over for Josh Grizzard after an 8-9 season in which the offense averaged 5.2 yards per play, the lowest over the past three seasons and a full yard less than what they enjoyed under current Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen in 2024.

Robinson will be left to his own devices while Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles presumably pilots the defense to a top-three blitz rate for the eighth consecutive campaign. Robinson’s two-year yards per play average (5.5) in Atlanta, plus potential refinements in Robinson’s play-calling processes, inspire cautious optimism.

▶ 2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats (Rank)

• Points per game: 22.4 (18th) 
• Total yards per game: 320.4 (21st) 
• Plays per game: 62.8 (13th) 
• Dropbacks per game: 41.2 (8th) 
• Dropback EPA per play: 0.06 (18th) 
• Designed rush attempts per game: 26 (16th) 
• Rush EPA per play: -0.09 (24th) 

▶ Can new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson maximize the Buccaneers’ passing game potential?

Former Buccaneers No.1 wide receiver Mike Evans‘ tenure with the team came to an end after 12 years this offseason, yet Tampa Bay still fields an intriguingly deep wide receiver corps, backed up by a pair of capable pass-catching running backs.

Enter Robinson, whose 2024-25 Falcons offenses averaged 65.9 offensive plays per game (10th), a 54.9 percent neutral game pass play rate (26th), a 17.9 percent play-action pass play rate (32nd), a 67.6 percent shifts and motion rate (eighth) and a 66.3 percent 11 personnel rate (11th).

For an understudy of Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay, Robinson’s play-action pass play rate is baffling, although he at least improved from a 13.8 percent rate in 2024 to a 22.0 percent rate in 2025. Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton said this week that Robinson’s scheme involves “a lot of play action.” Hopefully, another substantial increase is on the way. In 2025, NFL offenses averaged 7.76 yards per pass play with play action and just 6.72 without.

While the NFL shifts toward heavier personnel packages, Robinson’s wide receiver-heavy preference fits well with the Buccaneers’ personnel. The locked-in starters can produce reliably on a weekly basis, while the Nos. 3-5 wide receivers frequently deliver usable best ball stat lines.

▶ Passing Game

QB: Baker Mayfield, Jake Browning
WR: Emeka Egbuka, Kameron Johnson, David Sills V, Eric Rivers Jr.
WR: Chris Godwin, Tez Johnson, Dennis Houston, Dean Patterson
WR: Jalen McMillan, Ted Hurst, Garrett Greene
TE: Cade Otton, Payne Durham, Ko Kieft

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfieldrecently revealed that he played through MCL and PCL sprains suffered in Week 2 last year. He also played through a foot/toe injury in Week 3, a throwing-arm biceps contusion in Weeks 4–5, an oblique injury in Week 8 and suffered a sprain in his previously injured left shoulder in Week 12. He averaged just 6.8 yards per pass attempt and a 71.9 percent adjusted completion rate. Both figures are the lowest in his Tampa Bay tenure, yet he managed to finish as the overall QB12. A bounce-back should be expected, good health pending. He can be viewed as a mid-to-low QB1 candidate.

Buccaneers 2025 rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka played an extended season in 2024, going straight from Ohio State’s College Football Playoff championship to training for the 2025 NFL Scouting Combine. He was the overall PPR WR3 in Weeks 1-5 total scoring, but his multi-year campaign eventually caught up with him, leading to September and October hamstring injuries and a steep decline in productivity. He generated 23.5 PPR points in Week 10, following the Buccaneers’ Week 9 bye, but never once cleared 12.0 PPR points thereafter. He finished the year as the overall PPR WR23.

Fantasy managers should cautiously expect a return to form in 2026.

Robinson expects Egbuka, 23, to “take huge, huge strides,” and Egbuka told reporters in June that he is feeling refreshed and was able to pack on lean muscle this spring, after taking needed time off early in the offseason. He will compete with wide receiver Chris Godwin, 30, for the Buccaneers’ WR1 role this summer.

Godwin had collected a league-high 50 receptions in Week 7, 2024, when he suffered a season-ending fibula fracture and ankle dislocation. He retook the field for the first time in Week 4, 2025, but was sidelined from Weeks 6-12 after suffering another fibula injury.

He averaged 1.36 yards per route run (YPRR) in 2025 after averaging 2.36 in 2024.

As of June, Godwin reportedly looked “sharp” and “smooth” at organized team activities, but it is fair to wonder if he is best-suited to a complementary role at this point. Godwin could end up as the team’s top target earner, though finishing below Egbuka–and another Buccaneers wide receiver–is possible.

Buccaneers wide receivers Jalen McMillan, Tez Johnson and rookie Ted Hurst are competing for the Buccaneers’ wide-open WR3 role. A preseason neck injury derailed McMillan’s 2025, second NFL season, sidelining him until Week 15. Over the final four weeks, he ranked sixth in his team’s positional targets (15), while leading the group with 2.14 YPRR. Dating back to his Week 11, 2024, rookie season bye, McMillan has averaged 1.75 YPRR and a 16.8 percent target rate, creating an uneven receiving profile.

Johnson finished as the PPR WR67 in his 2025 rookie season, producing five double-digit fantasy-point outings as the offense navigated wide receiver injuries mid-season. He averaged just 1.08 YPRR across the full season and averaged 1.27 in his productive Weeks 5-12 run, during which he scored five touchdowns. Johnson reportedly stood out at organized team activities and mandatory minicamp this year.

McMillan (6-foot-1, 192 pounds) and Johnson (5-foot-10, 165 pounds) possess inside-outside versatility, though neither player fills the X-receiver void left by wide receiver Evans, who joined the San Francisco 49ers this offseason. The team has made clear that Hurst, a 6-foot-4, 206-pound third-round rookie, is a candidate to assume the vacated role, which could make him the most natural fit in three-wide receiver sets, given Egbuka and Godwin’s alignment versatility.

Hurst received praise from both the Buccaneers’ beat and coaching staff this spring.

All three wide receivers are worthwhile best ball dart throws entering training camp. They can be easily dropped as late-round, August re-draft picks as well. Hurst could offer the highest upside.

Otton finished as the PPR TE22 last season, earning 80 of his position group’s 84 targets. He is a best ball TE3.

▶ Running Game

RB: Bucky Irving, Kenneth Gainwell, Sean Tucker
OL (L-R): Tristan Wirfs, Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton, Cody Mauch, Luke Goedeke

Through six seasons, left tackle Tristan Wirfs boasts five Pro Bowl nods, two first-team All-Pro selections, one second-team All-Pro selection and a spot on the 2020 PFWA All-Rookie Team. He makes a strong case for being the best left tackle in football. The rest of the line features two capable pass protectors, left guard Ben Bredeson (76.0 PFF pass-blocking grade) and right guard Cody Mauch (66.4 PFF pass-blocking grade), plus run-game mauler, center Graham Barton (66.0 PFF run-blocking grade) and all-around stud right tackle Luke Goedeke (79.3 PFF offense grade). They form one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.

Foot and shoulder injuries sidelined running back Bucky Irving from Weeks 5-12, and reportedly took a mental toll on the then-second-year player. Irving enters 2026 as the de facto starter, but free agent signee running back Kenneth Gainwell used spring practices to work his way up to “1B” status, and Robinson notes the two backs possess similar skill sets. Gainwell could challenge for the starting role this summer or in-season.

Buccaneers No. 3 running back Sean Tucker could also retain his late-season role as a short-yardage and scoring-position specialist, though he would likely produce unreliably if this is the case. Treat him as a high-upside bench stash.

Irving underwent surgery in February to correct the shoulder issue. He resumed practicing in June, and told reporters this week that he will be “good to go” for training camp. Veterans report for training camp on July 28th.

Pre-injury, Irving was the overall PPR RB9 in Weeks 1-4. Among 33 NFL running backs with at least 35 rushing attempts during that span, Irving ranks fifth in rushing attempts (71), ties for 12th in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.21), ranks 27th in yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.4) and last in first down and/or touchdown rate (9.9 percent). Among 15 NFL running backs with at least 15 targets during that span, Irving ranks fifth in targets (19), ninth in target rate (20.9 percent), third in YPRR (2.12) and ties for first in catch rate (100.0 percent). He finished as the overall PPR RB34 last year.

Gainwell broke out in his fifth NFL season with the Pittsburgh Steelers last year, finishing as the overall PPR RB16. Including the NFL playoffs, Gainwell’s 77 receptions tie for third at the position. Among 32 NFL running backs with at least 35 targets across the full season, Gainwell ranks second in target rate (24.5 percent), seventh in YPRR (1.44) and catch rate (88.5 percent). Among 45 NFL running backs with at least 120 rushing attempts, Gainwell ranks last in rushing attempts (120), yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.4) and first down and/or touchdown rate (15.6 percent). He ties for 21st in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.18).

Both Irving (5-foot-10, 195 pounds) and Gainwell (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) are undersized. Employing a committee approach makes sense. Among the 2,884 targets earned by NFL running backs across the full 2025 season, 399 were earned during the two-minute drill (13.8 percent) and 331 were earned on third- and fourth-and-long (11.5 percent). Among the 390 rushing touchdowns scored by NFL running backs across the full 2025 season, 318 were scored in the red zone (81.5 percent) and 281 were scored in the green zone (72.1 percent).

Identifying the Buccaneers’ starter, passing game specialist and scoring position specialist is critical for maximizing fantasy value in this backfield.

▶ 2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win Total

DraftKings Over/Under: 8.5
Pick: Under (-136)

Sharp Football Analysis lists the Buccaneers with the 10th-toughest strength of schedule. A 9-8 season is within reason. If the Cincinnati Bengals continue their slow early-season-start trend, albeit at home, the Buccaneers could eke out a victory in Week 1. Home games against the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings are winnable in Weeks 2-3, but Tampa Bay could end up suffering a Week 4 home loss to the Green Bay Packers before picking up another loss, this time on the road, against the Dallas Cowboys. The Buccaneers’ ensuing three-game slate vs. PIT, @ CAR and vs. ATL could net three wins. They must then face the vaunted Chicago Bears on the road before going on bye in Week 10. At this point in the season, a 6-3 record is less likely than a 4-5 record. Going 1-4 post-bye, playing @ DET, vs. CAR, vs. LAC, @ BAL and vs. NO, is possible. Netting a road win against the Falcons in Week 16 would be a nice way to enter the final two-game stretch vs. LAR and @ NO.